Signs of El Niño emerging rapidly

News from WeatherZone – April 28 :

Sea surface temperature observations from the past two weeks suggest that El Niño could be rapidly emerging in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Computer models have been hinting at the possibility of a 2026 El Niño event for the past three months, with the Bureau’s modelling predicting in January that El Niño could develop by winter.

Things now appear to be moving faster than anticipated, with ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rapidly warming towards El Niño thresholds in the past couple of weeks.

Ocean temperatures inside the key monitoring region for El Niño - an area known as the Niño3.4 region – have warmed rapidly this month, rising by 0.5°C in the last two weeks and 0.3°C in just one week. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region are warmer than average for several consecutive months. I

n Australia, the El Niño threshold is 0.8°C warmer than the long-term average (taking the background warming signal from climate change into account). 

The latest weekly Niño3.4 index value, measured in the week ending on April 26, 2026, was 0.23°C above average. Just two weeks ago this index was sitting 0.27°C below average and just over two months ago, it was at -0.87°C, below the threshold for La Niña.

 - AUTHOR: BEN DOMENSINO

Original Article Here